Engine 01: The Core
Predictions, simplified.
Agosto Capital began as a private algorithmic trading firm. We build systems that price probability and trade prediction markets with discipline, the research engine the rest of the firm is built on.
Our approach
Markets are noisy. Systems aren't.
Prediction markets turn real-world questions into prices. Where human traders react to headlines, our systems react to mispriced probability, methodically, repeatedly, without emotion.
Quantify probability
We model the true likelihood of outcomes from data, then compare it to where the market is priced. The gap is the opportunity.
Trade systematically
Automated execution removes hesitation and bias. Rules in, positions out, consistently and at scale across many markets.
Size with discipline
Every position is bounded. Capital is allocated to edge, not conviction, with strict limits that protect the book through any single outcome.
Why prediction markets
A cleaner test of edge.
Prediction markets resolve to a clear, binary truth. That makes them an honest proving ground for systematic strategy: a model is either calibrated or it isn't, and the scoreboard is unambiguous.
The same research rigor we apply here, probabilistic thinking, automation, disciplined risk, is the operating system we bring to everything else Agosto does.
- Probabilistic, data-first researchModels built to be calibrated, not to confirm a view.
- Fully automated executionStrategy expressed as code, not gut feel.
- Bounded, rules-based riskPosition limits and drawdown controls on every market.
- Continuous improvementEvery resolved market is feedback that sharpens the next trade.
The research core
The discipline behind the whole firm.
Prediction-market trading is where Agosto's systems thinking was forged. To learn more about the firm and our other engines, get in touch.
Contact Agosto Capital